Bitcoin today: how many lost

On some purses are placed thousands and thousands of bitcoins. Most of the coins are usually on the purses of various exchanges (at the Binance  exchange on the wallet more than 300,000 coins). Some users also have a lot of coins, but there are those who own only the tenth, one hundredth, or one thousandth bitcoin fraction. Whatever it was, purses in the system are many hundreds of thousands, if not millions. For example, representatives of Blockchain.info say that they have 10 million users.

The crypto-currency market has a unique characteristic, which effects on bitcoin today rate. Other segments of the financial market do not have it. Namely – quite a large amount of assets that do not really exist. This is digital money on purses with lost access codes and a large number of “bubbles” of illiquid tokens, pumped by the owners of emissions using robots. Now the total number of bitcoins is about 16.6 million pieces, but their significant part is lost or “dead”

Some users sometimes forget access data. Someone, unfortunately, dies as a result of an accident or for natural reasons. Sometimes people just throw out drives with “cold” storage of their coins. In general, everything happens, and already produced, but lost in some way, crooks, although they are considered part of the very limit of 21 million coins, but they can not be returned and used in any way. How many of them, forever lost cryptocoins?

Why are they are lost from bitcoin market data?

Now the cause of the loss of bitcoins in the category of “dead coins” is either the loss of access to the wallet, or the death / illness of the purse owner, plus a few more less important reasons. Since the cue-ball course is very high, now there are almost no people who start participating in the system of bitcoin market data for the sake of interest, buy something or minnow and throw this hobby of their own. Even the tenth or one hundredth part of bitcoin is money that hardly anyone will want to throw away.

But a few years ago, when the bitcoins were almost worthless, many began to mine or bought them, and then, not seeing in their employment any prospect, they threw wallets, often forgetting accesses. Actually, who is interested in crypto currency, for 10 000 coins which you can buy pizza (well, even two)? Only geeks, and even then not all. Hard and CD disks with purses were thrown out, the computer equipment with them broke, the leaves with the written accesses were thrown out. It can be assumed that most of the bitcoins became “dead souls” at the very beginning of the development of the entire system, before the cues began to cost something in monetary terms.

How many of bitcoin market volume are lost?

It’s hard to say for sure, but you can count. In order to start the calculation, we need a technique and an algorithm for calculating lost bitcoins. The easiest way to do this is if you analyze the activity of the system wallets. Transactions are transparent, which means you can “see” which wallets are alive, workers, and which do not participate in the overall work, although they are covered by some funds.

Now some wallets are inactive, because they are used as a coin box. The owner slowly builds the bitcoins and waits for the bitcoin market volume course to increase. But what if the purse remains inactive from the moment when the bitcoins have already begun to cost something? For example, from 2013. Probably, in this case, with a high degree of probability, such a purse can be considered dead, because then, at the beginning of 2013, the rate of bitcoin began to grow, and very quickly. Over the past few years, probably, any owner bitcoin-purse, which is at least some money, could not stand it and carried out a couple of transactions. If this does not happen, so you can consider the purse dead.

Here you can see that counting all those tens of thousands of purses with a minimum amount of crypto currency on them (less than 0.01 bitcoins) does not make sense. It only takes time, and the overall picture does not affect. Experts estimate that in this kind of wallets can be in the aggregate no more than 2000 BTC.

Enough to support bitcoin trading value. How many?

If we use the calculation technique discussed above, it turns out that the lost bitcoins have about 3 million coins. Perhaps, some of them will return to the market, but hardly all at once. In addition, when speaking about Bitcoin, it should be understood that Bitcoin Cash is also lost – all the same 3 million. At the current rate it is more than $ 14 billion according to bitcoin trading value, a very large amount for any company.

If we take into account that the total bitcoins in the system can be 21 million, it turns out that about a seventh of the coins are lost forever. It is almost impossible to restore them. Sometimes, very rarely, the owners of wallets that forget the password, can restore access. But this happens very rarely and is unlikely to change the current situation.

How many more bitcoins will disappear from bitcoin exchange market?

In the future, even more bitcoins will disappear, but the rate of their loss will be much slower, because now this crypto currency is highly valued, and people try to protect it (and they will not throw out the hard drive with them, as it used to). The results of the research raises an important question: can bitcoin be considered a rarer currency than it is now considered, and are the missing bitcoins counted when calculating the current value of the crypto currency on bitcoin exchange market?

This is a very difficult question: direct calculations of market capitalization do not take into account the currency that has disappeared. Given that in this area is full of assumptions, the calculation of market capitalization can enter into those economic models of the market that affect costs. However, the market has adapted to the current demand and supply – just look at what is happening on the stock exchange. In addition, the procedure for reducing and increasing the funds of funds is a well-known method of influencing the exchange rate. So to answer this question it is possible both positively and negatively

Missing bitcoin volume and the secret of Satoshi

When calculating the number of missing bitcoins, fork plays an important role, for example, one of those that happened this summer and led to the appearance of Bitcoin Cash bitcoin clone. Because of such events, the owners of crypto-currencies, who have not used their wallets for several years, begin to move and conduct transactions, on the basis of which it is possible to conduct a statistical analysis.

An important role is played by «hodlers» – the earliest owners of  bitcoin volume. It was their wallets that caused the most questions – it was unclear whether the bitcoins from this category were missing or simply stored somewhere.

A large number of bitcoins disappeared during incorrect transfers and because of the loss of the key due to negligence or the death of its owner. But such calculations are not based on statistical extrapolation and will be corrected in the future.

The question remains, what happened to Satoshi’s bitcoins, the mysterious creator of this crypto currency, about which nothing has been heard since 2011. Chainalysis believes that Satoshi’s purse contains about 1 million bitcoins (the company will provide a more accurate figure later). Most likely, all this crypto currency – which was extracted even in those times when it was easy to lure 50 bitcoins with a laptop – was irretrievably lost. This is a very serious assumption, and if it turns out to be incorrect, then the number of existing bitcoins on the market can significantly grow and shock the market.

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